Web Search

Custom Search

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Gustav



With the disposition of a potential hurricane 'Gustav' the markets are in a flurry of market activity, but it is more of uncertainty. Wall street is glued to the weather channel or accuview weather.

Analysts believe that the energy, insurance and real estate will be negatively affected. Just based on the past history of Katrina's affect of the market, we can draw the conclusion that it is more likely that the market will respond similarly to the market's during Katrina.

Specifically, looking at the companies who will be most affected; Shell, Haliburton, AllState, and Waste Management.

Beginning with Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), they have already shut down some offshore facilities and moving the mobile facilities as much out of the way as possible. With more than 25% of the United States Domestic Oil and Gas Production in the area forcasted to be affected, it's a no brainer that the respective energy producers will be negatively affected.

With potential destruction imminent, and Bloomberg just claiming that Hurricane Gustav's destructive power could be comparable to Katrina, its safe to surmise that the insurance sector will take a hit. Historicaly, the AllState Corporation's stock price fell by five points due to the aftermath of Katrina and should anticipate a similar drop. It would be wise to look at State Farm insurance as well.

The largest name in the Energy service industry is hands-down Haliburton Corp. (NYSE:HAL). Once Gustav lays down the wrath to the energy platforms in the area, servicing and repairing the damaged energy facilities. This is just the type of bread and butter business Haliburton and it's share holder thrive on.

Finally, Waste Management as it did will with Katrina will be heavily contracted to clean up the mess which Gustav will undoubtedly leave behind.

So In a nutshell, just to save on time, looking at October Calls of HAL and WMI seem to be a prudent direction to take, and October Puts on RDS.A and ALL.

Remember that the above suggestions are to just nudge you in the right direction to research and are purely my opinion. Please consult your Investment Advisor before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk.

Contrary to the news and speculation of Gustav, Oil is currently down on a higher US dollar driven by higher than expected GDP results.

1 comment:

GS751 said...

Interesting call on waste management. Insurance is a tricky sector because it is not my area of expertise. Although I have a large AIG short position that I have talked about in my blog. I think that insurance companies are gonna suffer due to revenue declines.