The Blackberry Storm Canadian Release. Long Term Fundamental Analysis Not So Hot For RIM.

In North America today, was the official news release of the Blackberry Storm. A sleek and sophisticated looking smart phone device, will clash in the global wireless markets against tough rival, Apple iPhone. The device will work both on GSM and CDMA networks, depending on the provider. It features 3.2 Mp camera, video recording, Haptics (a touch-response technology that lets you feel the screen and push down to make selections), horizontal and vertical screen flip, complete media features, streaming media. A very exciting new addition the the Blackberry family.

Unfortunately, the release could not have come at a worse time. With the global economy on a slowdown and the systematic failures of the United States financial markets, a massive client base of the Blackberry is drastically reduced. It is perceived that roughly 90% of the worlds major financial, banking and insurance communities trust their wireless communications to Blackberry. With the collapse of these commercial financial houses, we should see a massive reduction in RIM earnings in both handset sales, and enterprise contracts with large corporations. A confirmation of this decline is inherent in the -52% performance in the past 6 months.

Long term Put positions in the 50-40 strikes seem to be optimal.

Feeding Frenzy! Wachovia is nothing but a piece of meat...

According to the WSJ, Wells Fargo and Citi Group have struck up an agreement to tear apart Wachovia and divide the spoils among themselves. It seems very similar to two starved dog's thrown one AAA sirloin steak. This will probably have a negative impact on WB shares on Monday but with the markets where they are, who knows. 

My original position were to hold call options on WB as this institution was perceived to go back up by March. The assets being torn apart will most likely change my play on Wachovia. We shall see tomorrow morning.

O'Leary Global Equity Income Fund (TSX:OGE.UN) - Fund Equities

I'm still having a tough time finding the list of equities in the OGE.UN. What I have been researching for is an official source and not any of Google Finance's so-called savvy investors who post in the discussions. Unfortunately as of now, I still have come up with nothing. 

So below is a list of the fund's investments in no particular order that I was able to find.

1. Cosco Pacific Ltd. - http://www.coscopac.com.hk/eng/global/home.php - Shipping

2. Portugal Telecom - http://www.telecom.pt/InternetResource/PTSite/UK - Telecom

3. Fosters Group - http://www.fosters.com.au/ - Alcohol Beverage Producer

4. AES Tiete - http://www.aestiete.com.br/canal44.asp - Hydro Electric Producer

5. Suburban Propane - http://www.suburbanpropane.com/ - Consumer Propane Supplier

I will endeavor to find out more of the fund's investments. Do bear in mind that the fund is actively managed by Stanton Asset Management so changes in position are managed on a daily basis.

Happy Investing.

 

New Feasable Energy Solutions... (NYSE:FAN) - Wind ETF

Alright so this is a pretty trivial article on energy crisis and newer, less costly renewable energy products. There are countless articles, opinion's and political views of the different energy solutions to better reduce the harmful environmental impacts to the Earth's environment as well as our so called diminishing fossil fuel supply.

My favorite alternative energy technology available is definitely wind energy. I believe wind to be far more superior to the other alternatives for various reasons. Versus Solar, Wind has I higher yield of energy output with less opportunity cost of land. Wind turbines have a significantly smaller footprint than a solar matrix. With less land being consumed, the land can be used for agriculture, etc.

It's optimal compared to the bio-fuels as the bio fuels still produce carbon and the opportunity cost of the organic material (corn) used in production could be better used as livestock feed or food.

Another pro for Wind technology is that wind tech is not necessarily land-locked. Wind turbines can be erected in a floating apparatus anchored to a seabed. And advantage over solar and less costly to do than aquatic Geo-thermal technology.

To take advantage over the opportunity in Wind, you could purchase shares or calls in the Wind Energy producers or equipment manufacturers. I like the new First Trust Global Wind Energy (ETF) (NYSE:FAN). Its near it's 52 week low and is a great opportunity to get in.

New ETF Brought To My Attention (NYSE:FXI iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index)

The following ETF has caught my eye and I believe it to be a great bearish global play. iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE:FXI) is a China play as the title obviously displays. This particular ETF correspond with the price and yield performance of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index which essentially moves with the economy of the booming nation. Why it has caught my eye as a potential play is that last quarter, China saw the slowest GDP growth in the than it's had in the past six years. Now obviously this is caused by the Global Economic slowdown affecting the world economy accompanied by a reduction in global demand for Oil forecasted for the coming quarter.

The 52w low is a little over $30 and the high being $73.19. As I write this piece, the price has bounced on the September 30 market bounce after the 29th's congress financial bailout vote failed sending markets globally into a downward spiral.

China should correct soon as the American dream continues to crumble and continue positive economic growth and return in a 12-18 month period back to its highs.

Personally I am so sick of North American market instability, I am aggressively seeking international investment opportunities. If any readers have any suggestions, please leave your suggestion as a comment to this article.

Cheers,

O'Leary Global Equity Income Fund (OGE.UN:TSX) now on Agoracom.com

Just wanted to let the readers know that I have been appointed by Agoracom as the Hub Leader for the O'Leary Global Equity Income Fund's Investor Hub.

If your not familiar with Agoracom, it is the Internet's largest online Investor Relations company.

"AGORACOM is the Web 2.0 online marketplace and forum for citizens of the small-cap investment community. Public companies, shareholders and prospective shareholders amalgamate for the purposes of communicating in a monitored and secure environment free of bashing, hyping, spam and profanity that have plagued other small-cap communities for far too long." - Agoracom.com

And as of last week, they just began advertising on BNN, Bloomberg, and CNBC. This e-Firm is going to explode IMO and has a massive, informed community where the business concerns of many client and non-client publicly traded company's are discussed.

I will be moderating and posting information with regard to OGE.UN and this investor hub will be an investors and prospective investors best bet for information on the income trust.

Also, the O'Leary Global Infrastructure Fund will be traded soon. Unfortunately, no word on a symbol yet, but as soon as I know what it is, you do. I am very excited for this fund.

http://www.agoracom.com/
http://agoracom.com/ir/Gencap
http://www.gencapfunds.com/

Hit the Commodity ETF's and ETN's, and Hit Them Hard

This past last 6 months have created havoc in the United States and the rest of the world. The mortgage crisis followed by the financial market meltdown has created a situation of the largest Government bail-out in the history of the western world. The $700 billion Fed print-out *cough cough*, forgive me; Bail-out has produced a ton of cheap money sloshing around the worlds markets. What does this mean? Well for one, Hyper-Inflation.

Now the equities markets won't be very effected by the eroded buying power of the all-mighty greenback, but you will definitely see hyper-inflation in the commodities. And of course, the specifics are Gold, Silver and Oil. But don't kid yourself, the other commodities will be very lucrative in inflated gains.

Now, myself, I don't trade the actual commodities. My interests lie more in the ETF's and ETN's which follow the commodities. Specifically, the option call's of these securities. As always, do your homework, find the right strikes and profit.

(NYSE: GLD, SLV, DGP AMEX:USO)

And as always, the producer's of the commodities aren't a bad bet either, but be prepared to go the long distance.

Happy Trading.

NEXEN - Premium Synthetic Crude to Begin Production Any Day

Nexen Inc. (NYSE:NXY, TSX:NXY), a large energy producer based in Canada which has a massive stake in the Long Lake Project in Fort McMurray looks to complete it's new Upgrader asset. As of September 2, 2008; a press release from Nexen revealed that the Long Lake project was moving along on schedule and that 90% of the upgrader to their extraction and processing asset's were commissioned and eluded that the upgrades would be complete by the end of the month.

We are coming to the end of the month and I look everyday for news of completion. This Upgrader will allow Nexen to begin it's first production of it's Premium Synthetic Crude product. All resources and materials for production are all procured and allocated to begin production the the new energy product and is believed by analysts to raise the price of Nexen in the $30-$35 range.

The best bet is to look at the October and November Calls to best position one's portfolio to benefit from this growth.

Further Rally In AIG and it's Calls

News released Sunday of AIG's major share holders efforts to raise capital and purchase the Government's 80% stake in the financial firm is already affecting AIG's bids and asks this Sunday evening. As of 10:36 MT, the stock is poised for a gap of 20 cents for tomorrow's market open and I anticipate it to raise further as we approach the market open for Monday.

My interpretation of this action is that obviously the shareholders don't want the shares to be diluted by that 80% stake but it also shows me that the company is worth not handing it over to the US Government and to keep the power with the shareholders.

The Calls of AIG between the 5-7 strikes look to be of particular open interest and look to perform very well tomorrow.

Keep an eye out for AIG.

Government Bails Out AIG With $85 Billion Loan

Another informational video of AIG's take over. Just an additional weekend video for your viewing pleasure. Look for a new post Monday. Have a great weekend.

Treasury Rescue Plan: Bad Medicine

An interesting video of the recent activities of the U.S Government whith regard to the financial meltdown. Enjoy!

AIG and SPY Call's

During the trading day today, I was able to find a nice little opportunity which was an obvious no brainer on AIG (NYSE:AIG). The October 5 Calls were especially active on AIG, opening today at $0.50 gapping up from the $0.24 PDC and reaching a high of $1.08 and ending the trading day at $0.91 with massive volitility throughout the day. There were plenty of profit-taking opportunities for traders.

As well, Calls on SPY performed extremely well for investors with Friday's rally.

Overall, plenty of gains for investors to earn back from the financial crash earlier this week.

Oil and Commodities Tumble.....

*Sorry for the late post folks. I have unfortunately been sick extending my labor day long-weekend further than anticipated. I do try to at least post once daily but I let the ball slip.

On Tuesday as most of you are well aware of, Oil prices fell to a new five-month low, allowing the $100/barrel.

The demand side of oil fell as supply fears were extinguished as Gustav only affected the perimeter of the Gulf's 'Oil Patch' and drove the prices of oil further down. Although terrible for investors, I am thankful that a Katrina level incident did not repeat itself and cause as much hardship for the people of the American south.

As of now, Oil production in the Gulf is still shutdown as part of the preparations to minimize Gustav's damage to the energy facilities if the hurricane were to occur as forecasted.

Oil and commodities including Gold fell on additional news of global economic output falling. Economic slowdown in the America's and Europe will hinder demand for oil and has caused investors to pull out of the commodity and energy sectors around the globe.

In addition to the above, the greenback gained strength versus the euro and other western currencies driving demand for Commodities measures in USD down.

Overall, as energy traders on Tuesday drove down prices via mass exodus of the markets, it is apparent that they are going to keep their eyes on the following tropical storms to come.

Gustav

With the disposition of a potential hurricane 'Gustav' the markets are in a flurry of market activity, but it is more of uncertainty. Wall street is glued to the weather channel or accuview weather.

Analysts believe that the energy, insurance and real estate will be negatively affected. Just based on the past history of Katrina's affect of the market, we can draw the conclusion that it is more likely that the market will respond similarly to the market's during Katrina.

Specifically, looking at the companies who will be most affected; Shell, Haliburton, AllState, and Waste Management.

Beginning with Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), they have already shut down some offshore facilities and moving the mobile facilities as much out of the way as possible. With more than 25% of the United States Domestic Oil and Gas Production in the area forcasted to be affected, it's a no brainer that the respective energy producers will be negatively affected.

With potential destruction imminent, and Bloomberg just claiming that Hurricane Gustav's destructive power could be comparable to Katrina, its safe to surmise that the insurance sector will take a hit. Historicaly, the AllState Corporation's stock price fell by five points due to the aftermath of Katrina and should anticipate a similar drop. It would be wise to look at State Farm insurance as well.

The largest name in the Energy service industry is hands-down Haliburton Corp. (NYSE:HAL). Once Gustav lays down the wrath to the energy platforms in the area, servicing and repairing the damaged energy facilities. This is just the type of bread and butter business Haliburton and it's share holder thrive on.

Finally, Waste Management as it did will with Katrina will be heavily contracted to clean up the mess which Gustav will undoubtedly leave behind.

So In a nutshell, just to save on time, looking at October Calls of HAL and WMI seem to be a prudent direction to take, and October Puts on RDS.A and ALL.

Remember that the above suggestions are to just nudge you in the right direction to research and are purely my opinion. Please consult your Investment Advisor before making any investment decisions. Investing involves risk.

Contrary to the news and speculation of Gustav, Oil is currently down on a higher US dollar driven by higher than expected GDP results.

Water, Water Everywhere.... International Importers Take a Drink?

I wanted to wirte this post regarding a Quebec think tank view on exporting Canadian fresh water to the rest of the world (meaning the USA), and I just wish to clarify the under-valuation of Water as a commodity. Perhaps you have heard of water being "the new oil" and the speculation of being priced higher in 10 years in equivalent barrel volumes of oil. Perhaps this may be or perhaps not. Let's look at this from a different perspective, rather not as a commodity speculator, but as a consumer. In Canada, a liter of regular gas averages around $1.20; where as a 500 ml bottle of water at individual retail prices can find you anywhere between $1-3 depending on brand and purchase location. That is a massive difference between the two commodities and there is one major and obvious difference between them; a human cannot physically live without water.

Retailing the precious, life-giving commodity at those prices is a tremendous opportunity and the price can only go up from here.

Another point is with recent developments by the Japanese automakers regarding hydrogen fuel-cell such as Honda's FCX Clarity, the new use for water will drive prices up further.

I fear i am rambling on now, so I will leave you with my favorite water ETF's:

- PowerShares Water Resources (ETF) (Public, AMEX:PHO)

- Claymore S&P Global Water Index ETF (Public, AMEX:CGW)

CIBC.....

Rather than compose a very obvious post on this financial institution's write downs of US assets, I'm just going to link you an article in the Report on Business this morning. Do enjoy.

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080827.wcibc0827/BNStory/Business/home

Freddie And Fannie Of Course! Thornburg Who?

The obvious debacle over Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have indeed lead the media in the recent credit crisis craze. The anticipation of government bailouts of the two dwindling lenders has driven Wall Street to drive the stock's down to ridiculous lows. The lows currently are still much better than the anticipated value of Fannie and Freddie post government bail out: Zero Equity.

What seems to have been forgotten or rather deferred away from the media's attention is Thornburg Mortgage. Not only did the company's stock plummet to all time lows from $.75 to $.21 in a matter of days, but it did so weeks before Fannie and Freddie. Thornburg taking a massive dive to the low of $.17 closed Tuesday up $.09 to a market price of $.49. There has been very little media commentary regarding this mortgage lender and yet such a profound recovery has occurred and looks to continue it's crawl back to a respectable price.

Tuesdays recovery can be attributed to a better-than-expected earnings report due to sale off assets and new accounting procedures. In focus, Thornburg reported $412.3 million, or 84 cents per share, compared to the $78.1 million, or 66 cents per share in the previous year.

My bottom line is, and although Thornburg isn't even in the same weight class as Freddie and Fannie, perhaps the Thornburg story is a good model for the two lenders to follow and not allow the Fed to bail them out, and let the market refinance them. At least that way, it gives the investors a better chance to retain their investments rather than wipe them out without a chance. We shall see.

Keep an eye out for Thornburg (NYSE:TMA)

Your Guess Is As Good As Mine....

Looking for comments and insight to my readers oppinions on what is going on with Spot Gold.....

A Dragon's New Fund: O'Leary Global Equity Income Fund (TSX:OGE.UN)

Some how, I missed the IPO offering and release of one of my favorite Business icon's, Kevin O'Leary. After discovering the fund today, I am very excited and pleased with the results of this new fund. The fund is in fact an Income Trust, and although Canadian Income Trusts have significantly lost their luster in the past 3 years, I still find them to be a solid investment as they have proven themselves to be very stable and low risk. The O'Leary Global Equity Income Fund is comprised of primarily global investment opportunities directed by Stanton Asset Management as well as the O'Leary Fund Corp. Both of the aforesaid parties will manage the fund by identifying international income-generating investments, as well as other capital appreciation opportunities. The security currently trades in the $12-14 range and can be found on the TSX under OGE.UN. Released August 19, 2008

Looking forward to tracking the growth of this new fund.

Options Action: Wells Fargo and Suntrust Bank

It seems that two of America's top financial institutions are not going to prevail from the so called 'credit crisis' plaguing so many Americans unscathed. At least this is not more news on Mac and Mae; but Wells Fargo and Suntrust Bank.

It seems that investors we're very shaky on the earnings reports released this week of Wells Fargo and Suntrust. The market responded to this by trading the firm's down Monday. They responded significantly in the Put contracts driving volume alerts for the derivatives in various months.

The most action was being exercised by hedge funds positioning themselves with bear put spreads of Fargo and Suntrust. Bear put spreads are the simultaneous purchase of a put option with a higher strike price and the sale of another put option with a lower strike price.
The strike prices being exercised were within the October $30 and $45 range.

I Forecast Thunder in September and October. Possibilites Of A Storm Now?

With the recent release of the new 3G iPhone and the more recent release of the Blackberry Bold, RIM's performance over competitor, Apple has been very accommodating to investors of RIM and Option traders who have Put's on AAPL.

Apple's 3G woes did not just end with network technical difficulties, but a recent lawsuit of the misrepresentation of its recent Mobile's capabilities have investors driving the price down further.

For the record, the new iPhone and the new Blackberry Bold, although amusingly similar in appearance, are not exactly comparable products. It would be like 'comparing steak and lobster' as Canada's National Post described the competing phones this morning.

Although both utilize the 3G wireless connection enabling users with much faster connection speeds, the Blackberry is not touch screen, and is aimed at business class and upgraders where as the iPhone is more suitable for media-centric users. Still investors of RIM drove the stock and calls up this week, and not even Palm's 'Blackberry Targeted' new handheld could persuade investors otherwise.

Based on the market results, it is a safe bet that RIM will be pushed up even more in September and October as a result of the official announcement of the Blackberry Thunder (Now known as the Storm), RIM's first touchscreen operated phone. It is RIM's response to the popular iPhone. No news yet of the media capabilities of the Storm, but based on the Bold's new capabilities, the Storm looks promising.

In summary, it looks promising to buy September and October Call's of RIMM and take a look at the options of the Rogers, Verizon, and AT&T, the initial Blackberry Wireless Providers in North America.

When Will Gold Be Golden? Oil?

Earlier this week, the markets were teased with a micro-rally of gold and oil. Gold closed back down as the greenback rebounded against the euro on Friday. Oil also dropped significantly as a result.

Scanning the media in both broad casted and print mediums, there is a clear division of the opinions where Gold and Oil will be going. By the years end, I have heard the opinions that oil will bottom out at $80.00/barrel or top out at $200.00/barrel. Gold is a lot more tougher to identify bottoms or peaks. I have ultimately decided that based on what I have hear from analysts in the media, no one has any clue where Gold is going to go. People give there educated guess shrouded in market lingo, but no definitive targets.

My personal opinion for Gold and Oil is that it is more likely that Gold and Oil will rise in price as the cost of production for each commodity constantly rises.

The facts are that all the oil and gold has been relatively easy to extract from the earth. It has all been surface level resources. All future deposits are deeper and much harder to extract, thus the cost of production will rise and add on the the market price.

This is a very obvious and simple fundamental look at the futures of these commodities but it gives investors a much better understanding and idea how to position themselves.

With this information, my favorite gold plays are definitely GLD and DGP. GLD is a spot gold ETF and DGP is a double long gold ETN. For a long-term speculative play, the January Option Calls look to be solid.

With regard to Oil, I like the the producers and the refiners, long term calls seems only rational. Especially with Billy and Warren touring the Northern Oil Patch, and Newfoundland beginning to turn the gears forward.

Schwab September Call's Are Up On Close.

Today, there was an unusual open interest in Charles Schwab (SCHW). We saw unusual volumes and open interests on the Spetember 22.50 and 25 Call's Contracts. CNBC's Fast Money also acknowledged these trades on the Popular Show. It seems that an unidentified swiss firm was positioning around these derivitives. At the bell today, these contracts were closed up 21% on the 22.50 and 50% on the 25 contract.

The world renound securities firm was up today on news of the WTO deal being urged forward.